I’m going to take a guess here about why the polls were wrong in 2024 like they were in 2016. There is no question the mainline media and not a few podcasts were supporters of the Democratic nominees in both contests so a lot of their air time went to stories that denigrated Donald Trump. In the last three campaigns the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic campaign ran an identity campaign vice an issues campaign. That is they demonized Donald Trump vice pushing policies that would help those in the voting electorate.
This is a direct application of the Saul Alinsky approach to taking and keeping power. Rule number five: “Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon. There is no defense. It is almost impossible to counterattack ridicule. Also it infuriates the opposition, who then react to your advantage.” Rule number nine:“The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself.” Rule number eleven: “If you push a negative hard and deep enough it will break through into its counterside; this is based on the principle that every positive has its negative.” And most importantly Rule number thirteen:“Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.”
Aided heavily by the media ( according to Media Buzz 85% negative coverage for Donald Trump opposed to 78% positive coverage for Kamala Harris) the demonization of President-elect Trump flowed downward to any who voiced support for his candidacy. I personally have witnessed on the street, in the gym, in the grocery store and other public places people called Nazis, Racists, Fascists, Sexists and other such denigratory names by Democratic supporters. I’ve watched people being flipped off and even when, as an independent, I tried to have a discussion of issues with people being called names that when I was younger I would have popped someone for calling me. Just a quick thrust to the windpipe between my thumb and fingers. No bruises, no permanent damage just a warning about my personal boundaries.
And that is the answer to why the polls were incorrect, personal boundaries. No one wants to be ridiculed, categorized as subhuman or otherwise denigrated so why tell someone you’re going to vote for Trump. Additionally, once you declare one way or the other the political machine of that party will call you, mail you, text you and otherwise make your life miserable with requests for support.
The negative campaign turned people off until the voting booths opened at which time those who would have been denigrated (and may in fact have been) in public, made their own personal figurative thrust to the throat by voting for Trump. They would not, however, share beforehand their preference for the reasons I mentioned above. The negative Alinsky oriented campaign run by the Democratic Party itself caused the skewing of the polls. That’s why the polls were wrong. That, and the desire of the pollsters who wanted their polls to be self-fulfilling prophecies.
Now one other question that I’ve asked before: in 2008 Barrack Obama received 69.5 million votes; in 2012 he received 66 million votes; in 2016 Hillary Clinton received 66 million votes; in 2020 Joe Biden received 81.25 million votes; in 2024 Kamala Harris received 69 million votes. Why the jump from 2016 to 2020 and then the fall off from 2020 to 2024? What was different about the 2020 election? I need to do some research with a by state breakout of the popular vote. Why did 12.25 million Democratic voters desert the party? Or did they?